Wind Turbine Power Threatened by Climate Change: Europe's Summer Winds Decrease

Studies highlight growing concerns over energy supply instability due to wind speed reduction / AP

Research indicates that climate change is causing a significant drop in summer wind speeds across Europe, particularly in the northern hemisphere’s mid-latitude regions, known as the "stilling" phenomenon. This change in wind patterns is expected to intensify challenges for wind energy production, which could disrupt the stability of energy supplies reliant on renewable sources.

According to recent research by a team of climate scientists from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, the increase in surface and tropospheric warming is causing wind speeds to decrease in regions like Europe. The study forecasts that from 2021 to 2050, wind speeds will decline by less than 5%, but this relatively small decrease could have a significant impact on wind power generation.

Professor Gan Zhang, the lead researcher, explained that energy markets are highly sensitive to marginal cost changes, noting that even a small shift in wind speed—by 5 to 10 percent—could substantially affect electricity prices. This is particularly concerning as Europe has been transitioning from fossil fuels and nuclear energy to a greater reliance on renewable energy sources, including wind power, to stabilize its electricity grid.

The reduction in wind speeds poses a serious risk to energy supply stability, as it could lead to a drop in wind energy generation at times of high demand. Christopher Vogel, a wind and tidal energy researcher at Oxford University, pointed out that energy is ultimately governed by two key factors: the sun and the wind. With climate change increasing variability in these energy sources, the ability to maintain consistent energy output could be further jeopardized.

Ivan Føre Svegaarden, an analyst at Norwegian climate and energy consultancy TradeWpower AS, has observed an increase in the frequency and duration of high-pressure systems in Europe. These conditions lead to decreased wind power generation, signaling that the expected changes in wind patterns are already underway. As a result, renewable energy sources, particularly wind power, could face greater volatility and inconsistency.

In response to these challenges, the research team utilized multiple data sets and simulations to supplement existing wind speed data and confirmed the increasing trend of the "stilling" phenomenon in summer. To address these risks, Professor Zhang recommends that Europe adopts more flexible strategies for renewable energy generation. He advocates for the decentralized deployment of power generation facilities, stronger interconnection of national electricity grids, and the establishment of supplementary power sources to ensure energy reliability.

Christopher Vogel also emphasized the importance of diversified energy policies, noting that the UK’s electricity demand can peak at various times throughout the year, making it impossible to rely solely on wind power to meet these needs. This underlines the urgency of implementing multi-faceted energy strategies to mitigate the risks posed by climate change-induced fluctuations in renewable energy production.

As wind power becomes an increasingly critical part of Europe’s energy transition, adapting to the changes in wind patterns and ensuring a diversified, resilient energy infrastructure will be key to maintaining energy stability in the face of climate change.